METADATA IN ENGLISH


About the journal


NAUKA I TEKHNOLOGICHESKIE RAZRABOTKI (SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS), ISSN: 2079-5165, eISSN: 2410-7948, DOI: 10.21455/std; https://elibrary.ru/title_about.asp?id=32295; http://std.ifz.ru/. The journal was founded in 1992.


EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION: OLD ANTICIPATIONS
AND NEW RESULTS


M.V. Rodkin


Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow, Russia
;

Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia

e-mail: rodkin@mitp.ru


Highlights

Criticism of earthquake prediction algorithms without taking into account the physical mechanism of earthquake precursors

New data are presented in favor of a fluid metamorphogenic model of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence

The typical character of the precursor seismic process is considered

Possibilities of a new approach to earthquake prediction are discussed


Abstract. A significant part of modern earthquake prediction algorithms are based on general signs of loss of stability by the system, without reference to the physical mechanism of the development of seismic instability. Considerations have been repeatedly expressed that such an approach is unlikely to lead to a completely satisfactory forecast. New geophysical evidence in favor of a fluid metamorphogenic model of the earthquake mechanism and data on the typical nature of the precursor seismic process are presented. The use of these new data for earthquake prediction is discussed.


Keywords: earthquake forecast, algorithms, system stability, physical mechanism, fluid metamorphogenic mechanism of earthquakes


Cite this article as: Rodkin M.V. Earthquake prediction: old anticipations and new results, Nauka i Tekhnologicheskie Razrabotki (Science and Technological Developments), 2020, vol. 99, no. 3, pp. 5–18. [in Russian.]. https://doi.org/10.21455/std2020.3-2


Funding


This work was carried out within the framework of the State Task of the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (project AAAA-A19-119011490129-0) and the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (project AAAA-A18-118012290125-2.2) with partial support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 19-05-00466.


Ethics declarations


The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.


References


Andreeva, M.Yu., Rodkin, M.V., On the seismotectonic setting on the oceanic side of deep-water trenches, Tikhookeanskaya geologiya (Pacific Geology), 2017, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 13–20.

Bak, P., How Nature Works, New York, Springer-Verlag, 1996, 212 р.

Drumea, A.V., Shebalin, N.V., Earthquake: Where, When, Why?, Chisinau, Shtiintsa, 1985, 196 p.

Geller, R.J., Jakson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., Mulargia, F., Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted, Science, 1997, vol. 275, pp. 1616–1617.

Kalinin, V.A., Rodkin, M.V., Tomashevskaya, I.S., Geodinamicheskiye effekty fiziko-khimicheskikh prevrashcheniy v tverdoy srede (Geodynamic effects of physicochemical transformations in a solid medium), Moscow, Nauka, 1989, 158 p. [in Russian].

Kasahara, K., Mekhanika zemletryaseniy (Mechanics of earthquakes), Moscow, Mir, 1985, 264 p. [in Russian].

Kasahara, J., Toriumi, M., Kawamura, K., Role of water in earthquake generation, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Special Issue 2001, vol. 76, no. 3–4. 389 p.

Kosobokov, V.G., Teoreticheskaya baza i algoritmy prognoza zemletryaseniy na osnove pred-vestnikovoy aktivizatsii seysmichnosti (Theoretical base and algorithms for forecasting earthquakes based on pre-herald activation of seismicity), Sc.D. Thesis, Moscow, 2004, 266 p. [in Russian].

Marone, C., Liu, M., Transformation shear instability and the seismogenic zone for deep earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 1997, vol. 24, pp. 1887–1890.

Nanjo, K.Z., Earthquake forecasts for the CSEP Japan experiment based on the RI algorithm, Earth Planets Space, 2011, vol. 63, pp. 261–274.

Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K., Zhuang, J., Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results, Geophys. J. Int., 2012, vol. 191, iss. 2, pp. 653–658. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x

Nikitina, M.A., Rodkin, M.V., Shmakov, I.G., Relationships of the Seismicity at the Alaska Subduction Zone to Metamorphism and the Deep Fluid Regime, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2020, vol. 56, no. 6, pp. 892–899. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351320060063

Pruessner, G., Self-Organised Criticality: Theory, Models and Characterisation, Cambridge, University Press, 2012, 494 p. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511977671

Rebetsky, Yu.L., Tektonicheskiye napryazheniya i prochnost' prirodnykh gornykh massivov (Tectonic stresses and strength of natural mountain ranges), Moscow, Akademkniga, 2007, 406 p. [in Russian].

Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S., Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., Stepanyan, R., Nadariya, M., Hahubia, G., Mahmoud, S., Sakr, K., ArRajehi, A., Paradissis, D., Al-Aydrus, A., Prilepin, M., Guseva, T., Evren, E., Dmitrotsa, A., Filikov, S.V., Gomez, F., Al-Ghazzi, R., Karam G., GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 2006, vol. 111, iss. B5, B05411, 26 p. https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2005JB004051

Rodkin, M.V., Rol' glubinnogo flyuidnogo rezhima v geodinamike i seysmotektonike (The role of the deep fluid regime in geodynamics and seismotectonics), Moscow, National Geophysical Committee, 1993, 194 p. [in Russian].

Rodkin, M.V., Crustal earthquakes induced by solid-state transformations, J. Earthq. Predict. Res., 1995, vol. 4, pp. 215–223.

Rodkin, M.V., Contradictions in the Recent Seismogenetical Notions, Phys. Chem. Earth, 1996, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 257–260.

Rodkin, M.V., Statistics of apparent stresses in relation to the origin of an earthquake source, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2001, vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 663–672.

Rodkin, M.V., Seismicity in the generalized vicinity of large earthquakes, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2008, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 435–445. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046308060055

Rodkin M.V. Earthquake Forecast, in: Sb. nauchno-populyarnykh statey – pobediteley konkursa RFFI 2009 g. (Sb. popular science articles – winners of the RFBR competition in 2009). V.I. Konov, ed., Moscow, RFFI, GEOS-Priroda, 2010, pp. 330–338. [in Russian].

Rodkin, M.V., Alternative to SOC concept-model of seismic regime as a set of episodes of random avalanche-like releases occurring on a set of metastable subsystems, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2011, vol. 47, no. 11, pp. 966–973.

Rodkin, M.V., Patterns of seismicity found in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake: Agreement with common scenarios of instability development, in: Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., Ed. by A.S. Sharma et al., vol. 196, Washington: AGU, 2012, pp. 27–39. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GM001060

Rodkin, M.V., Rundqvist, D.V., Geoflyuidodinamika. Prilozheniye k seysmologii, tektonike, protsessam rudo- i neftegeneza (Geofluidodynamics. Application to seismology, tectonics, ore and oil genesis processes), Dolgoprudny: Intellect, 2017, 288 p. [in Russian].

Rodkin, M.V., A Typical Foreshock and Aftershock Anomaly: Observations, Interpretation, and Applications, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2020, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 58–69. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046320010066

Rodkin, M.V., Tikhonov, I.N., The typical seismic behavior in the vicinity of a large earthquake, Phys. Chem. Earth, 2016, vol. 95, pp. 73–84.

Romashkova, L.L., Kosobokov, V.G., Dynamics of seismic activity before and after the strongest earthquakes in the world, 1985–2000, Vychislitel'naya seysmologiya (Computational seismology), 2001, iss. 32, pp. 162-189. [in Russian].

Shebalin, P.N., Vozrastaniye radiusa korrelyatsii seysmichnosti kak predvestnik sil'nykh zemletryaseniy: metodologiya prognoza s periodom ozhidaniya meneye goda (Increase in the correlation radius of seismicity as a precursor of strong earthquakes: forecast methodology with a waiting period of less than a year), Sc.D. Thesis, Moscow, 2004, 255 p. [in Russian].

Smirnov, V.B., Ponomarev, A.V., Seismic regime relaxation properties from in situ and laboratory data, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2004, vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 807–816.

Sobolev, G.A., Osnovy prognoza zemletryaseniy (Fundamentals of earthquake prediction), Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 314 p. [in Russian].

Sornette, D., Mechanochemistry: An Hypothesis for Shallow Earthquakes, in: Earthquake Thermodynamics and Phase Transformations in the Earth’s Interior, Eds. R. Teisseyre, E. Majewski, International Geophysics Series, vol. 76, Academic Press, 2001, pp. 329–366.

Wells, D.L., Coppersmith, K.J., New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 1994, vol. 84, pp. 974–1002.

Zavyalov, A.D., Srednesrochnyy prognoz zemletryaseniy. Osnovy, metodika, realizatsiya (Medium-term earthquake forecast. Basics, methodology, implementation), Moscow, Nauka, 2006, 242 p. [in Russian].


About the author


RODKIN Mikhail Vladimirovich – Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 117997, Moscow, ul. Profsoyuznaya, 84/32; Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch. Russia, 693022, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, ul. Nauki, 1B. E-mail: rodkin@mitp.ru


English translation of the article will be published in Seismic Instruments, ISSN: 0747-9239 (Print)

1934-7871 (Online), https://link.springer.com/journal/11990)